Record Aussie hiring blitz

CommSec CommSec

 

16 Dec 2021

  • Employment soared by a record 366,100 jobs in November.
  • Part-time jobs surged by 237,800 – the second most ever - with full-time jobs up by a record 128,300.
  • The participation rate rose from 64.6 per cent to 66.1 per cent in November. 
  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 4.6 per cent in November. 
  • Hours worked jumped by 4.5 per cent in November to 1,801 million, up 2.7 per cent on a year ago.
  • The underutilisation rate dipped from 14.7 per cent to a 9-year low of 12.1 per cent in November. And the underemployment rate fell from 9.5 per cent to a 6-month low of 7.5 per cent.
  • Unemployment across states in November: NSW 4.6 per cent (October: 5.4 per cent); Victoria 4.7 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 4.8 per cent (5.1 per cent) – a 12½ year low; South Australia 4.6 per cent (5.3 per cent) – an equal 11½-year low; Western Australia 3.8 per cent (3.9 per cent) - a 9-year low; Tasmania 5.1 per cent (5.1 per cent); Northern Territory 4.4 per cent (3.9 per cent); ACT 3.8 per cent (6.6 per cent).  
  • Employment across states in November: NSW +179,700; Victoria +141,000; Queensland +14,300; South Australia +10,100; Western Australia +22,700; Tasmania +1,800; Northern Territory -2,400; ACT +8,000. 
 

What has changed since the last Board meeting on November 2?

  • Aussie employers embarked on a hiring blitz in November with a record-breaking 366,100 workers landing a new job or were re-hired after an easing of Delta Covid-19 restrictions in Australia’s south-east. The job surge was also driven by the return to work of people with jobs who were not previously counted as employed as social distancing measures prevented them from attending work places. In fact, 296,800 workers returned to the workforce in November.
  • Employment in NSW (+179,700) and Victoria (+141,000) both surged as businesses resumed ‘normal’ operations from October as lockdowns ended. In fact, hours worked jumped by 5.6 per cent in NSW and 9.7 per cent in Victoria in November. And relatively “Covid-free” states saw strong jobs gains, with South Australia’s unemployment rate hitting an equal 11½-year low at 4.6 per cent, Queensland’s jobless rate fell to a 12½-year low of 4.8 per cent, and Western Australia’s unemployment rate of 3.8 per cent was the lowest in 9 years in November.       
  • Other measures of labour demand also rebounded with the number of hours worked rising sharply (+4.5 per cent) as employees returned to work. And workforce participation rebounded with the participation rate increasing from 64.6 per cent in October to 66.1 per cent in November as the economy re-opened and government support measures were wound back. The participation rate is just below all-time highs of 66.3 per cent in June, 2021. The big increase in jobs outweighed the lift in labour supply, resulting in a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.2 per cent to 4.6 per cent in November. 
  • Measures of spare capacity improved, with the underutilisation rate dipping from 14.7 per cent to a 9-year low of 12.1 per cent last month. And the underemployment rate fell from 9.5 per cent to a 6-month low of 7.5 per cent.
  • Of course, the November labour force survey – conducted between October 31 and November 13 – could understate the actual rebound in employment with some workers unlikely to have been employed until December, given lags between the end of lockdowns and the commencement of new jobs.
  • Recently released job advertisements and vacancies data have been incredibly strong with some businesses desperately trying to hire workers ahead of the busy Christmas and summer holiday period. The National Skills Commission reported earlier this week that national skilled internet job vacancies hit 13-year highs of 252,312 positions in November. ANZ’s job ads gauge also hit 13-year highs in November with 222,093 available positions. Online job marketplace SEEK posted the highest number of job advertisements in over 23 years last month, with record vacancies posted in Victoria, Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. 
  • News, however, that SEEK’s measure of applications per job ad fell by 9.4 per cent in November will worry business owners, with a ‘worker drought’ and skills shortages widely reported across the IT, trades, agriculture, retail, hospitality and tourism industries. While foreign worker shortages have helped tighten the labour market prior to the Delta outbreaks, Australia’s high vaccination rates and the imminent reopening of international borders could in fact boost labour supply and curtail wage pressures.
  • The Reserve Bank (RBA) has made it ‘crystal clear’ that wages probably need to be growing at an annual rate of at least 3 per cent for inflation to sit sustainably in the middle of its 2-3 per cent inflation target. But with spare capacity likely to persist in the labour market following the Delta shock, policymakers don’t expect this goal to be reached in the foreseeable future. In fact, in the latest Board meeting, Governor Philip Lowe said the “Board is prepared to be patient,” because the tightening of the labour market and “pick-up [in wages growth] is expected to be only gradual.”
  • That said, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect wages to rise faster than the RBA’s forecasts on the back of a buoyant economy in 2022. The RBA expects the unemployment rate to approach 4 per cent with annual wages growth to be around 3 per cent – both conditions deemed necessary for a lift in the cash rate – by the end of 2023. But CBA Group economists estimate that the jobless rate will hit 4.1 per cent by the end of 2022, with annual wages growth of 2.8 per cent, pushing the annual growth rate in trimmed mean consumer prices to 2.5 per cent. Lift-off for the cash rate is expected, therefore, in November 2022.  
  • The RBA will make a decision on the bond buying program at the February 2022 Board meeting – with CBA Group economists favouring a further taper to $A2 billion per week until May 2022, but acknowledge the risk has increased that an end to the program is announced.

What do you need to know?

  • Employment soared by a record 366,100 jobs in November.
  • Part-time jobs surged by 237,800 – the second most ever - with full-time jobs up by a record 128,300.
  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 4.6 per cent in November. 
  • The participation rate rose from 64.6 per cent to 66.1 per cent in November. 
  • Spare capacity: The underutilisation rate dipped from 14.7 per cent to a 9-year low of 12.1 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 9.5 per cent to a 6-month low of 7.5 per cent.
  • Youth jobless. rate: The youth jobless rate fell from 13.1 per cent to 10.9 per cent.  
  • Unemployment across states in November: NSW 4.6 per cent (October: 5.4 per cent); Victoria 4.7 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 4.8 per cent (5.1 per cent); South Australia 4.6 per cent (5.3 per cent); Western Australia 3.8 per cent (3.9 per cent); Tasmania 5.1 per cent (5.1 per cent); Northern Territory 4.4 per cent (3.9 per cent); ACT 3.8 per cent (6.6 per cent).  
  • Employment across states in November: NSW +179,700; Victoria +141,000; Queensland +14,300; South Australia +10,100; Western Australia +22,700; Tasmania +1,800; Northern Territory -2,400; ACT +8,000.

Start trading today with Australia's leading online broker

Join now >

Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 ("CommSec") is a wholly owned, but non-guaranteed, subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 ("the Bank") and both entities are incorporated in Australia with limited liability.
This information is directed and available to and for the benefit of Australian residents only and is not a recommendation or forecast.

This information has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, needs, financial and taxation situation of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information on this site, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regards to their own objectives, needs, financial and taxation situation, and, if necessary, seek appropriate independent financial, foreign exchange and taxation advice. CommSec, and its related bodies corporate, do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this information. We believe that this information is correct as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness.

 

Disclaimer

This site is directed and available to and for the benefit of Australian residents only. © Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 ("CommSec") is a wholly owned, but non guaranteed, subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 and both entities are incorporated in Australia with limited liability.

By clicking on the "Download the CommSec App" buttons above, you will be directed to itunes.apple.com or play.google.com. These sites are not affiliated with CommSec and may offer a different Privacy Policy and level of security.

Top